Europe got its own massive bailout this week, a nearly $1 trillion life raft for the euro zone’s most indebted nations. The bailout was the latest attempt by European Union officials to ward off fears of Greece’s debt woes swamping other economically weakened euro-zone members. This one surpassed expectations and generally allayed fears over a major global market on the precipice. Today, it’s back from the edge, but market watchers say it might be wise to keep an eye on the European exposure of selected stocks in the near term.
Citigroup chief equity strategist Tobias Levkovich says it’s time for investors to pay close attention. Risk to European business for U.S.-based companies comes in the form of direct sales to the European economy, which he estimates make up 9% of overall S&P 500 revenues. He warns that significant austerity measures could slow sales there.
Meanwhile, the euro continues to fall. The currency slipped Thursday to $1.253, close to a 14-month low. That may be good for Americans vacationing on the Continent, but it could have a constricting effect on multinational trade. The dollar has gained 15% since the end of the fourth quarter, and will have an impact on second-half earnings, Levkovich says.
JPMorgan (JPM) analysts took a look at the stocks with the greatest European exposure in 30 industries. Companies such as Philip Morris International (PM), Xerox (XRX) and AutoDesk (ADSK), all of which had neutral ratings, get between 33% and 40% of their sales from Europe, according to a report published this week. In those sectors, Reynolds American (RAI), Brocade Communications (BRCD) and CSG Systems International (CSGS) offer more domestically-oriented plays that could pay off even in a gradual economic recovery here.
Heavy euro exposure could present a dip and buying opportunity for longer-term investors, but that approach still requires some caution. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a New York-based global political risk research and consulting firm and author of “The End of the Free Market,” says global economic catastrophe has been averted, “but it’s not fixed.”
“What’s happening in Europe isn’t random noise,” he says. “The markets forget that crises happen all the time, but they happen much more often when there is pressure in the underlying stability. We’re still working through the biggest economic shake-up since the Great Depression.”
For now, the most realistic hopes investors can have is for subdued progress, says David Kotok, chief economist of Cumberland Advisors. “I don’t know whether it’s sufficient, but the European Union commitment is now made to do whatever it takes,” he says. “This is the same thing as the United States’ commitment after Lehman and AIG.”
Although the adjustment may be painful, the long-term results will be beneficial, he says. “When this is all over, the euro emerges as a battle-tested currency, which it has not been until now,” he says. “Not only will it survive, but it will be stronger for all the changes that will emerge in Europe as it works through this debt crisis.”
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