GOOD MORNING. Stocks in Asia closed higher today, European shares are up, while U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open.

In the U.S., the market open will depend heavily on the durable goods orders report for February, which the Department of Commerce is scheduled to release today at 8:30 a.m. Analysts expect a 0.6% increase in orders. This would follow a 3% increase to $175.7 billion in January – the biggest gain since July – and a 1.9% increase in December.

This report is widely seen as a trigger for a series of economic indicators – led by growth in manufacturing – which are required in order to reach a full recovery and progress into economic expansion. “[It] gives the first indication that businesses are feeling more confident, that they are willing to increase their capital investment,” says Ross DeVol, executive director of economic research at the Milken Institute, a nonpartisan independent think tank. “If businesses feel the economy is turning, they will be more likely to increase orders, that leads to more production, which leads to more jobs.”

Looked at most closely within the report will be new orders on durable goods, excluding transportation-related orders like aircraft. (Those figures also tend to be volatile when a company places a large order for aircraft in one month and doesn’t do the same the next month.) By excluding transportation, analysts focus on non-defense capital goods, which include computers and electronic products, machinery and primary metals. In January, these new orders fell 0.6%.

That’s likely to turn around – albeit by a small amount – for February. “My sense is that we will see a modest increase in non-defense non-aircraft orders consistent with what we’ve been hearing from businesses [about] their increased confidence,” says DeVol.

Yet, a full-scale recovery appears to be months away at best. For that to happen, consumers need to feel confident enough to expand their spending – particularly to big-ticket purchases – a feat that DeVol says requires more than 200,000 jobs to be added per month, which we’re unlikely to see before September.

IN OTHER NEWS:

  • The health care legislation that President Obama signed on Tuesday requires the big restaurant chains nationwide, including McDonald’s (MCD) and Starbucks (SBUX), to post calorie information on menus and drive-throughs.LINK
  • The European crisis could be taking a turn for the worse; Today, Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal to AA- from AA. LINK
  • Bank of America (BAC) is expected to announce plans to begin forgiving mortgage principal for troubled homeowners.LINK

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