The U.S. stock market has had some remarkably generous runs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average more than tripled during the mid-1930s and did so again from 1981 to 1989. During the 1990s, the index quadrupled, so its latest increase by more than two-thirds might not sound so impressive (especially because the market is still well below its all-time high). However, this rally has occurred in the span of just 14 months, making it one of the most lucrative periods today’s investors are likely to see.
The three stocks below were chosen from the large, midsize and small companies that form the S&P Composite 1500. They’re among the 20 index members whose stock prices have tripled in a year. The humungous gains alone don’t mean these shares are expensive; present valuations matter more than past returns. Here’s a look at whether today’s prices for these shares are justified by these companies’ prosperity and growth prospects.
Ann Taylor
52-week gain (through Tuesday): 218%
Women’s clothing was one of the hardest-hit segments of retail during the consumer spending downturn or the past two years. Ann Taylor (ANN) suffered a 24% sales decline over two fiscal years ended Jan. 30, resulting in losses both years. In early 2009, the company’s stock briefly sold for less than $5 a share. Now it’s close to $25. The company has closed underperforming stores and converted some Ann Taylor stores into lower-price Ann Taylor Loft locations. In recent months, sales at longstanding stores rose at a double-digit pace, reflecting a broader pickup in consumer spending. The company is debt-free and again profitable — but perhaps too pricey, at 23 times forward earnings, a premium to the broad market of more than one-third.
SanDisk
52-week gain: 214%
SanDisk (SNDK) is the largest U.S. supplier of flash memory used in computer thumb drives and camera memory cards, and increasingly, in cellphones and computer hard drives. Volatile pricing for memory has led to boom and bust periods for SanDisk in the past, but pricing and demand look stable at the moment, and the company has a few advantages over competitors. First, it has a lead in the manufacture of so-called 3X NAND chips, the densest and most profitable kind of memory. Second, it sells retail memory products, which gives it more control over profit margins than companies that make only commodity memory. Despite the stock’s run-up, it still looks affordable at 12 times forward earnings.
Oshkosh
52-week gain: 249%
Oshkosh (OSK), a maker of specialty trucks (e.g. fire, garbage and cement), bought JLG, which specializes in aerial work platforms, in late 2006. The company’s net debt following the acquisition was a lofty 70% of its total capital. That was shortly before the industrial world slipped into recession, demand for platforms dropped and dealers were left with excess inventory. Investors feared the worst, sending the stock below $5 in November 2008 and again in March 2009. However, Oshkosh has made up for part of the sales decline of late by selling armor for military trucks, and the company has aggressively reduced its debt — to about 40% of capital today. The firm’s stock price has recovered all the way to $38 and change. Shares sell for only about five times this year’s forecast profit, but next year as the bulk of the company’s military orders wind down, profits are expected to fall by more than half. Municipal orders for emergency trucks are weak at the moment. Oshkosh stock could easily continue to outperform, but much depends on a sustained economic recovery and a corresponding rise in sales of work vehicles and platforms.
Jack Hough is an associate editor at SmartMoney.com and author of “Your Next Great Stock.”
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